The forecast of the analysts of an authoritative investment bank, the Bank of America, stirred up the world oil market yesterday. This forecast carefully analyzes how the change in the balance of supply and demand will affect the "black gold" world market and how the sanctions against Iran will affect the world market as a whole.

According to analysts, a significant drop in oil exports from Iran, as well as a protracted crisis in the Venezuelan oil industry, will have a serious impact on supply in the short term. A more serious threat to current oil prices is the pipeline capacity shortage for raw materials pumping from the largest shale deposits in West Texas to oil refineries and export terminals on the Gulf Coast. A part of the bay infrastructure has been destroyed this year by the most powerful tropical hurricanes. In the event that it becomes possible to build the entire necessary infrastructure in a short time, the U.S. shale companies will be able to increase the oil supplies volumes significantly.

According to the presented in the report figures, the world economy strengthening has provoked an increase in oil consumption by 1.5 million barrels per day this year. In the next 2019, this figure will amount to 1.4 million. These figures are at odds with the OPEC forecasts, which assure that the growth will reach the level of 1.6 million barrels per day this year. Saudi Arabia has already stated that it will be able to increase production volumes easily in order to compensate for the loss in case of the oil export blocking from Iran. However, it is not known how the rest of the OPEC members and the countries that have signed the contract on production limitation / Oil Cut Deal (OPEC + 11) will take this step.

WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)

According to the Bank of America analysts, the price per barrel of the benchmark Brent Crude Oil will reach $ 90 in the second quarter of the next year (Q2 2019). Under these conditions, it is quite possible that the cost per barrel of the North Sea Crude Oil will have easily reached the level of $ 100 mark by the end of 2019.

Brent Crude (ICE)

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